| Eurovision Song Contest News - 2009 Moscow, Russia 

Inga Inga

This is my top for the 2008. In the order I like them.
01. S W E D E N....................16. Netherlands................... ..31. San Marino
02. Germany....................... 17. Armenia....................... ...32. Cyprus
03. Czech Republic................18. Albania....................... .....33. Moldova
04. Slovenia...................... ..19. Switzerland................... ...34. Lithuania
05. Estonia....................... ..20. Ukraine....................... ...35. Turkey
06. Belgium....................... ..21. Greece........................ ...36. Georgia
07. Romania....................... .22. Belarus....................... ....37. Portugal
08. Hungary....................... .23. Bulgaria...................... ....38. Azerbaijan
09. Ireland....................... ...24. Serbia........................ ....39. FYROM
10. Norway........................ .25. Israel........................ .....40. Bosnia&Herzegovina
11. Poland........................ ...26. Croatia....................... ...41. Montenegro
12. Russia........................ ...27. France........................ ...42. Spain
13. Iceland....................... ...28. United Kingdom.................+Latvia (which I won't rate)
14. Malta......................... ...29. Denmark
15. Andorra....................... ..30. Finland
PREDICTION:
Well, I went trough the statistics since 2004, when a semi-final was introduced and I calculated that in 2004 to be in the 9th position (cause this year it's a number where you have to be to pass semi. As juries choice is not predictable), song needed 72 points out of 420 possible (35 countries (participating 36, but voting country cannot give points to themselves) awarding all 12 points to one country) or 17.1 percent, in 2005 - 97 votes out of 456 or 21.3 percent, in 2006 - 79 votes out of 432 or 18.3 percent and in 2007 - 97 votes out of 492 or 19.7 percent. So to be sure it should be at least 21.3 percent of max possible points.
1ST SEMI-FINAL:
1. Armenia. I didn't like this at first hear (too many Qele qele singing), but is growing on me and taking into account all odds and statistics, Sirusho should also be safe, but there is Greece, which performs last. These songs are very similar in my opinion and that is why I should be more careful in this prediction. I played with numbers, statistics and so on, and Armenia came out more clear leader than Greece, but again Armenia in those two previous attempts received points from only 10 of the 1st semi-final participating countries, but Greece in past 10 years - from 12. Again BUT, Armenia received most highest points and all those high point givers are in the first semi final - Belgium and Russia (average 11.3 points), Netherlands (10.7 points), Spain (9.3 points), Greece (8.7 points), Israel (7.7 points), Poland (6 points) and three countries with less than average 5 points. Statistically Armenia has already enough points to pass semi - 73.7 out of 240 possible, which is 30.7 percents. So I will place Armenia as NUMBER 1 in semi1.
2. Russia. For many fans this song is not so good as the "Never let you go", but in my opinion this is better one, except that horrible accent all the way. I looked into the odds and statistics, Russia is one of the favorites in the first semi-final, in any way. And performing at spot 18, I think it's a blessing, especially between Greece and Finland. And in so many ex-USSR countries taking part, he just can't not go to the final. Again BUT, I looked at the figures and there Dima has some problems, all the countries awarding Russia with highest points are mostly in the 2nd semi-final, such as Lithuania, Latvia, Ukraine, Belarus and funny, but Cyprus too. So it leaves Russia with Estonia (average 10.4 points), Israel (7.8 points), Romania (5.9 points), Finland, Moldova and Greece (5 points), and 12 countries with less than average 5 points (but at least 1point) giving to Russia. Statistically Russia has already enough points to pass semi - 67.6 out of 240 possible, which is 28.2 percents. So I will place Russia as NUMBER 2 in semi1.
3. Greece. I didn't really liked any of their entries this year (compared to last year, when I just "fell in love" with Sarbel, the first I saw him and heard the song), but if I had to choose, I would also go with Kalomoira and seems that it was a wise choice. I'm not a fan of it, but it has a good draw and coming after Armenia it's very very good for Kalomoira, as she won't be overshadowed by Sirusho. Again BUT, most of the Greece high point givers are in the 2nd semi-final as well and the biggest minus is Cyprus, cause it takes away from Greece 12 guaranteed points. So Greece will have to deal with Romania (average 6.9 points), Germany (6.7 points), Belgium (5.3 points) and 15 countries with less than average 5 points (but at least 1point) giving to Greece. Statistically Greece has already enough points to pass semi - 57.3 out of 240 possible, which are 23.9 percents. So I will place Greece as NUMBER 3 in semi1.
4. Romania. This song I really love, if not that woman singing, then it would probably be my No. 2. I never liked Romanian entries, but this one is a wonder. Nice ballad in good timbre and very strong, compared to Dima's ballad. The draw is not the best one, but I think Dimas and Romania's ballads are different enough to both pass semi-final. I like that Romania at last brought us something more to Europe sound, no more to techno or Balkan sounds. With this ballad Romania made a wise choose, mainly due to the most Western Europe countries in their semi-final, as I see in forums Balkan and southern countries are not into this song. Let's look at Romania's possible votes - not very good. So Romania will have to deal with Spain (average 8.1 points), Israel (6.9 points) and 12 countries with less than average 5 points (but at least 1point) giving to Romania. I just would make some changes in voting, as Moldova is in competition only 3 years, the average is very low, but I bet it'll be 12 points. So statistically Romania has already enough points to pass semi - 53.3 out of 240 possible, which are 22.2 percents. So I will place Romania as NUMBER 4 in semi1.
At this point I run out of the certain qualifiers and I will have to do with some statistics, feelings and chances.
5. Finland. I was very surprised to see that Finland had so high statistical data. This song is neither bad, neither good. It could do well among rock song lovers, as in the 1st semi-final, there're non of them and the draw is also excellent, followed by too strong and good ballads and before is Netherlands with nice song, but easily forgotetable. I think Finland could go through, but I don't like that song. So Finland will have to stick with just Estonia (average 8.4 points) and 15 countries with less than average 5 points (but at least 1point) giving to Finland. So statistically Finland will have enough points to pass semi - 47.8 out of 240 possible, which are 19.9 percents. So I will place Finland as NUMBER 5 in semi1.
6. Poland. This is the best balland in the whole contest I would say. Despite the fact that Poland doesn't have good statistics, but listening to this song in it's running place, I must say it stands out for me from the first awful awful bunch of bad and even weird songs. I just fear that this pompousity could sink her. If we remember for example 2005, when Chiara came out so sweet and simple and reached 2nd place, but Shiri was in pompous dress and she looked like princess, she reached 4th place. Not bad for both, but considering that Isis would have to fight with good uptempo songs, it could be a treat for her. And besides that she also performs before my favorite ballad from Romania. But I still think the song and she are both so beautiful that it should be enough to go to the final. So I will place Poland as NUMBER 6 in semi1.
7. Ireland/Estonia/Bosnia&Herzegovina. Here I really have a problem. On the one hand I would go with Ireland, cause I think despite all, they have very good running number. Coming after those earlier mentioned awful awful songs and then after Polands ballad, it grabed my attention, even considering that I really don't like this song so much. It stood out for me and I doubt that commercial breaks could make much of a damage. After the first 9 songs Poland, Ireland and Andorra in a row all three stood out after listening all semi1 first part songs. On the other hand the first part of the contest (semi1) is so bad that Estonia is the only one song at least a bid catchy. And if people will become borred and couldn't even whatch semi1 till the end, Estonia I think will be their choice. And a very very bad song in my opinion comes from B&H, but it's working so good in polls, that I really fear this could be the semi1 funny stuff winner. But oh Gosh, how I hate that song. That man looks like sick (eyes are so dreadfull) and he moves like he wants to WC. And what with those croppers??? Brrr...and that weird and unuseful clown runs aimless around the stage. But I have to be realistic that it goes very good in polls and in odds, that it could be top9 placing in semi. So I will place Estonia (but do not exclude Ireland and B&H completely) as NUMBER 7 in semi1.
8. Andorra. Well, this is one typical Eurovision song, but as I said earlier this one stood out after first songs and there's really nothing more to choose from... I like this song, but as we know liking doesn't mean in nowdays, stage performance is what people need... And statistics is also not good for them, but we have to take into account that Andorra hadn't really had good entries so far to improve their statistics. This is not a winning song, but if I have to choose from semi1, I'd better bet on this one than on Netherlands or Belgium entry. I like both of them very much, but Belgium is drawn in a bunch of awful songs and their song is so quiet and simple, that I'm affraid, it'll get lost between other borring songs. And Netherlands is just opposite - among strong songs and it's too simple and quiet to stay notice. So I'll go for Andorra, mainly due to the good draw. So I will place Andorra as NUMBER 8 in semi1.
9. Norway/Slovenia. I'm not sure yet, as they both come together. I will go with Norway, but again song is so simply quiet, that I'm affraid Slovenia could stole the ninth place (last guaranted final place) from Norway. I have Slovenia high in my personal top, but I understand that song is not very special to stand out or even go for winning... The weak point for Slovenia is neighbouring, so less countries will vote for it. As I mentioned earlier, it'll have to be 51 point to get guaranted ninth place, if the top songs will grab the biggest peace it could also be 41 point. Here we can count: Norway - 12 from Finland I think, 8 from Estonia probably, Ireland could also go with 8, and then I think Belgium and Netherland could give max 5 points each and maybe Poland and Israel 7 points. It could be max 52 points for Norway. And for Slovenia - 12 from Montenegro, 12 from Bosnia, Spain and Russia max 4 points and Poland could also go with 4. And that's about it. Only 36 points I think. Well... So I will place Norway (but don't discount Slovenia easily) as NUMBER 9 in semi1.
2ND SEMI-FINAL:
Tis semi-final is more variated, so I think I will have problem to choose qualifyers. It's not the best semi I think, but most interseting for sure. As favorites are very early in the running order and so it'll be very ineretsing to sea how things will go for them.
Latvia
Sweden
Ukraine
Bulgaria
Hungary
Portugal
Turkey
Malta
FYROM

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OK. From this year 2007, I will make my top:
1. U K R A I N E...................11. Lithuania..................... 21. Slovenia............31.Bosnia
2. Greece........................ .12. Israel........................ .22. Malta...............32. Iceland
3. Russia........................ ..13. Cyprus.......................2 3. Andorra.............33. Turkey
4. Denmark....................... 14. Ireland....................... 24. Portugal............34. Armenia
5. Bulgaria...................... ..15. Romania.....................25 . Serbia...............35. Germany
6. Switzerland................... .16. France......................26 . Spain................36. Hungary
7. Moldova....................... .17. Sweeden....................27. Croatia..............37. UK
8. Belarus....................... ..18. Georgia......................2 8. Austria.............38. Czech Republic
9. The Netherlands..............19. Estonia......................2 9. Poland...............39. Belgium
10. FYROM........................2 0.Finland ......................30. Norway..............40. Albania
.............................. .............................. .............................. ............41. Montenegro